Kỳ lạ luật Mỹ Tổng thống cũng không thể cách chức chủ tịch FED

## Thời sự Mỹ ngày sáng 13/11: ‘Cuộc chiến’ lớn đầu tiên của Ông Trump: Đối đầu với FED?

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The article discusses a potential confrontation between President-elect Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair whom Trump had previously considered dismissing during his first term. The tension began in 2018 when Trump expressed frustration over interest rate hikes that contradicted his preferences, leading him to prepare a legal strategy to defend the Fed’s independence. Powell has maintained a firm stance, asserting that he would not resign if asked by Trump, citing legal protections. Experts suggest that if Trump succeeds in challenging the Fed’s leadership, it could set a precedent for future presidents to remove Fed chairs at will. The current economic landscape complicates matters, as Trump faces high inflation and interest rates during his second term. Unlike his first term, where he filled several vacancies on the Fed’s board, there are no current openings, limiting his ability to influence the institution directly. Any attempt to oust Powell while the Fed is combating inflation could disrupt markets more than during his first term, especially as inflation is projected to remain high. Trump has repeatedly vowed to lower inflation and interest rates, framing inflation as detrimental to the country. However, rising inflation could heighten tensions between the Fed and the incoming Trump administration, particularly if new policies raise concerns about inflation, such as tax cuts funded by deficits or new tariffs. Economists warn that markets would react negatively if Trump attempted to remove Powell, despite his past claims of being able to do so. The law protects Fed chairs from dismissal except for misconduct or neglect of duty, and Powell enjoys strong bipartisan support in Congress, evidenced by his confirmation vote in 2022. Trump’s advisors are divided on how to approach the situation, with some previously suggesting a strategy to undermine Powell’s position, though this idea has faced criticism. Historical precedents indicate that political interference with the Fed can lead to severe economic consequences, as seen during Nixon’s presidency when pressure on the Fed resulted in prolonged inflation and a painful recession in the early 1980s. Powell, appointed by both the Obama and Trump administrations and reappointed by Biden, has shown a commitment to maintaining the Fed’s independence, stating he would never voluntarily leave his position.

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Powell has asserted that he will serve his full term as Fed Chair until May 2026, laying the groundwork for a potential legal battle over his position. Legal experts believe he could prevail in such a case, as lawmakers have historically refrained from granting the president the authority to unilaterally remove the Fed Chair. Meanwhile, President-elect Trump is finalizing his cabinet for the upcoming four-year term, having appointed Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, marking a significant milestone as the first Latinx individual to hold this high diplomatic position. Rubio, known for his strong foreign policy stance, has softened his approach in recent years to align more closely with Trump’s views. Trump has also appointed Republican Congressman Mike W. as his National Security Advisor, a role that does not require Senate confirmation, to inform him on national security matters and coordinate with various agencies. For the position of Secretary of Homeland Security, Trump has chosen Kristi Noem, the Governor of South Dakota, who is a loyal ally and was previously considered a potential vice-presidential candidate. Additionally, Trump appointed Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, to oversee border issues, emphasizing a priority on deporting undocumented immigrants deemed threats to national security. As Trump and his team meet with candidates to finalize the cabinet ahead of his inauguration on January 20, preliminary results from the 2024 election indicate that the Republican Party has gained control of the House of Representatives, securing 219 out of 435 seats, surpassing the 218 needed for a majority. This outcome reflects a successful election season for the Republicans, with Trump achieving a significant victory in the presidential race against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

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The Democratic Party currently holds 210 seats, while the Republican Party has achieved significant victories in key states such as Nebraska, California, and Pennsylvania, solidifying their control of the House of Representatives with 219 seats. This narrow majority is expected to be reinforced as final vote counts from California and Alaska are released. The Republicans’ success in the midterm elections has been complemented by Donald Trump’s decisive win in the presidential race, where he secured 312 electoral votes against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Furthermore, the Republicans are poised to control the Senate with 52 seats, granting them full authority over the White House and both chambers of Congress for at least the next two years. Newly elected senators and representatives are set to be sworn in at the beginning of January 2025, with Trump scheduled to take the oath of office on January 20, 2025.

On January 11, it was reported that Trump has selected Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, marking a historic appointment as Rubio will be the first Latinx individual to hold this position. Rubio, a Cuban-American politician and lawyer from Florida, has served as a senator since 2011 and was a former rival of Trump during the 2016 Republican primaries. Trump is also in the process of appointing other high-ranking officials, including Mike W. as National Security Advisor and Tom Homan to oversee border issues. Additionally, Trump has nominated Republican Congresswoman El Stanic as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, as he continues to meet with potential candidates for his administration ahead of the inauguration.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been re-elected in a challenging vote following the recent lower house elections, which resulted in the ruling coalition losing its majority. Despite his victory, Ishiba faces the prospect of leading a minority government, which may present significant challenges compared to his predecessors. Political analysts have speculated on the possibility of Ishiba becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history, especially given the internal pressures within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the opposition’s determination to unseat him. The situation has been further complicated by the resignation of key allies within the LDP, including the new chairman of the Komeito Party and the head of the LDP’s election strategy committee, both of whom stepped down to take responsibility for the party’s recent electoral setbacks.

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The pressure on Prime Minister Ishiba’s government is mounting, particularly from opposition parties, with former Prime Minister Noa publicly urging all opposition factions to unite against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). If Noa successfully rallies support, the combined strength of the opposition could surpass the LDP’s 215 seats, potentially leading to Ishiba’s ousting. The Democratic Party, a key potential ally for the LDP, continues to present challenging demands regarding policy changes, including a controversial proposal to raise the taxable income threshold for workers. Acceptance of this demand could significantly reduce the government’s annual budget by approximately 7 to 8 trillion yen, while refusal could lead to severe political repercussions.

Despite these challenges, Ishiba has managed to navigate the political landscape, but his minority government will face numerous obstacles. Regaining the trust of voters and the Japanese populace is a daunting task that requires a sincere and prolonged effort. The economic situation, a chronic issue for Japan, poses a serious challenge for Ishiba’s administration, as his proposed social and economic policies may face resistance from the opposition, which holds a majority in the House of Representatives. Additionally, national security and defense issues complicate matters further, as the government must balance economic recovery with enhancing defense capabilities. The Japanese Ministry of Defense has announced plans to increase the defense budget to 43 trillion yen by 2028, a significant financial burden.

The new government’s relationship with the United States under President Trump will also be critical, as Trump’s proposed tariffs on Japanese exports could result in substantial economic losses for Japan. Furthermore, managing relations with South Korea and China remains a priority, alongside addressing rising crime rates that threaten public safety. These compounded challenges have led political analysts in Japan to express pessimism regarding Ishiba’s government and his leadership.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has communicated with President-elect Donald Trump three times since the U.S. elections, emphasizing their shared concerns about the threat posed by Iran. Netanyahu described these discussions as crucial for strengthening the U.S.-Israel alliance, highlighting their mutual recognition of the dangers Iran presents. He also noted the potential for expanding peace and cooperation in various areas, particularly in light of Iran’s recent threats of retaliation following military actions against it.

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Israel conducted unprecedented airstrikes on October 26 in retaliation for Iran’s launch of approximately 200 ballistic missiles earlier that month. This escalation followed Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas. During Trump’s first term, he unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstated sanctions, also ordering the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force. Despite a close collaboration between Trump and Netanyahu in the past, tensions arose when Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory in 2020 while Trump was still contesting the results. However, the two leaders appeared to mend their relationship in July when Trump hosted Netanyahu and his wife at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Following the recent elections, Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to reach out to Trump, expressing his support.

Trump has expressed a desire for the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon to cease before his inauguration on January 20, 2025, and has communicated this to Netanyahu. He also informed the Biden administration of his interest in facilitating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu is expected to continue collaborating with the Biden administration to achieve these challenging objectives. Analysts suggest that Netanyahu hopes for Trump’s return to the White House due to their longstanding friendship and Trump’s hardline stance against Iran, Israel’s adversary. During his first term, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, acknowledged Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and helped normalize relations between Israel and several Arab nations through the Abraham Accords.

Netanyahu’s comments about his discussions with Trump coincided with Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer’s visit to the U.S. to advocate for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Dermer had previously traveled to Russia to discuss its role in the peace process. On November 10, Trump requested Republican lawmakers to allow him to appoint key officials without Senate confirmation to prevent the Democratic Party from using its remaining power to obstruct his new administration. Currently, Republican senators are in the process of selecting their next leader, who will hold significant power when the party regains control of the Senate in January 2025. According to the U.S. Constitution, the Senate must vote to confirm presidential nominations for high-level executive positions, including cabinet members and judges. However, a constitutional provision allows the president to bypass Senate votes if the chamber is in an extended recess, which is often avoided through legislative tactics. In a social media statement on November 10, Trump urged Republican senators to support his appointments during recess, emphasizing that any senator seeking leadership positions must agree to this approach.

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The Senate has halted all confirmations related to judges during President Joe Biden’s term, as the Democratic Party maintains control and pushes for the appointment of hundreds of federal judges to counteract the wave of conservative appointments made during Trump’s first term. The new Senate is expected to be sworn in at the beginning of January 2025, as Trump selects personnel for his upcoming administration. He has appointed Tom Homan, former acting director of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), to oversee border security, including the southern border and maritime and aviation security, while also focusing on the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Homan previously served in Trump’s first administration and was a candidate for Secretary of Homeland Security.

On November 10, Trump nominated Republican Senator Elise Stefanik as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, recognizing her as a strong ally and a key fundraiser for the Republican Party during the election campaign. Trump plans to meet with potential candidates for his administration before his inauguration. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned of global risks if the U.S. were to cease support for Ukraine, noting that the Biden administration would allocate the remaining $6 billion from the funding package before Trump takes office. Sullivan mentioned that Biden is scheduled to meet with Trump on November 13 to discuss key foreign policy issues, aiming to ensure Ukraine’s favorable position in negotiations.

Under Biden’s administration, the U.S. has become the largest provider of military and financial aid to Ukraine and has led a coalition of Western nations supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. In contrast, Trump has claimed he would resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, although he has not provided a detailed plan. Ukrainian officials are concerned that Trump may significantly reduce or terminate aid once he assumes the presidency. Following Trump’s election, South Korean President Yoon has called for discussions on financial, trade, and industrial matters to prepare for the anticipated changes in U.S. trade policy under Trump. The international markets have begun to react, with a focus on preparing for a new economic policy direction even before Trump’s inauguration. During his campaign, Trump indicated plans to impose tariffs of up to 60% on China and a general 10% tariff on imports from all countries, including South Korea.

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The international economic outlook for South Korea suggests a potential decline in exports amounting to $44.8 billion over several years, which could lead to an estimated 0.67% contraction in the country’s economy if Trump implements his proposed universal tariffs. Meanwhile, the impact of the recent U.S. elections on the cryptocurrency market remains significant, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $81,000 before stabilizing around $80,800. Experts attribute this surge to Trump’s victory and his pro-cryptocurrency stance, which has fueled investor optimism for a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets under his administration. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin’s value has increased by approximately 90%, driven by strong demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.

On November 10, reports emerged that Trump had a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 7, during which they discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Trump advised Putin against escalating military actions and highlighted the significant U.S. military presence in Europe. They also touched on the need for peace in Europe, with Trump expressing a desire for further negotiations to quickly resolve the Ukraine conflict. During his campaign, Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within a day but did not elaborate on how he would achieve this. James Stavridis, a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, suggested that Trump’s diplomatic approach might involve pressuring Ukraine to concede territories controlled by Russia.

Since leaving office in January 2021, Trump has reportedly communicated with Putin multiple times, although he has not confirmed these interactions. He also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with Ukrainian officials being aware of Trump’s discussions with Putin regarding a diplomatic resolution. However, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry later stated that claims of prior notification about Trump’s call with Putin were inaccurate. Trump’s initial communications with world leaders are being conducted without the support of the State Department or official interpreters, as his transition team has yet to finalize agreements with the State Department, a standard procedure during presidential transitions. On November 8, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov congratulated Trump on his electoral victory, praising his courage in facing challenges and expressing Moscow’s willingness to engage in dialogue with the incoming U.S. president.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that President Vladimir Putin remains open to dialogue with all parties involved in resolving the Ukraine conflict, but emphasized that Russia’s military objectives have not changed and are focused on national security. Peskov dismissed Western media reports suggesting a recent phone call between Trump and Putin, stating that no such conversation took place and that there are currently no plans for a discussion between the two leaders. This statement followed claims from the Washington Post that the two had discussed the situation in Ukraine and the desire for peace in Europe, with Trump expressing a wish to expedite the resolution of the conflict.

On November 8, Peskov had previously indicated that Putin congratulated Trump on his electoral victory and expressed Moscow’s willingness to engage in discussions. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected U.S. allegations of a plot to assassinate Trump, labeling them as baseless and a malicious attempt by Israel and hostile forces to complicate U.S.-Iran relations. Iranian spokesperson Isma Bak emphasized that such accusations are unfounded and reiterated Iran’s commitment to using legitimate means to restore its national rights.

The U.S. Department of Justice had recently announced charges against Iran, claiming that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had directed an individual to plan Trump’s assassination. This follows earlier denials from Iran regarding similar accusations, asserting that Trump is a criminal for ordering the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. In a related development, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned that Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon could escalate into broader conflicts, threatening security and stability not only in the Middle East but also globally.